Decision support, not a verdict. Risk flags indicate that a student may benefit from timely support and should be reviewed by an educator or advisor. All data shown is synthetic.
Who in this cohort might benefit from support this week — and how confident the model is about each one.
What this page is for
“It's week {n}. Which of my 500 students should I be worried about?”
Every student is scored using only what has happened up to the week you pick below. The list at the bottom is sorted so the students most worth a conversation are at the top. Nothing here decides anything — it decides what to look at first.
Predictions use weeks 1–5 only. Week 2 is the earliest supported.
Students in the cohort
500
All invented. No real student data is used anywhere in this project.
Average risk this week
35%
Averaged across everyone. Roughly 35 in every 100 students show a pattern resembling those who didn't finish.
In plain English
Out of 100 students who behaved like this one, roughly this many did not finish the course.
How it's worked out
The model reads the student's weeks so far and produces a number, which is then corrected (“calibrated”) so the percentage means what it says.
What it tells you
A description of a pattern, not a judgement about a person. A high score means this student's behaviour resembles students who struggled.
Why it's here at all
It gives a teacher a place to start when they have 500 students and time to contact ten.
Worth reaching out to
129
How to read this: each bar counts the students whose risk falls in that range. Most sit on the left, which is what a healthy cohort looks like. Everyone right of the dashed line would appear on a teacher's list.
Every score here uses weeks 1–5 only.
A traffic light, so nobody has to read percentages. “Medium” always means “this student would be flagged”.
Two-minute demo path
Open student_high_risk_001, student_high_risk_002, student_high_risk_003 to walk through a high, medium and low risk case — each with its own trajectory, attention map and recommended actions.
Sorted by risk. Open any row for the reasoning behind the score.
129 students are in the high band — clearly past the flag point. This is a prompt to look, never a verdict.
In plain English
A traffic light — low, medium or high — so nobody has to read percentages.
How it's worked out
“Medium” starts at the exact point where the system would flag someone. “High” is a good margin past that point.
What it tells you
Low = looks like the rest of the cohort. Medium = the system would flag them. High = flagged with room to spare.
Why it's here at all
Bands track the flag point automatically, so they can't drift out of step with the actual decision.
System isn't sure about
116
For these 116 students the system is explicitly saying "don't act on me alone" — either its repeated runs disagreed, or the score sits right on the borderline.
In plain English
The system saying: don't act on me alone for this student.
How it's worked out
Triggered when the 30 runs disagree too much, or when the score sits right on the borderline where a nudge either way would flip the decision.
What it tells you
A prompt to look at the student's situation yourself, not a conclusion.
Why it's here at all
A system that never admits doubt gets trusted in exactly the cases where it shouldn't be.
May benefit from proactive outreach
Some early signs — worth a check-in
Engagement in line with the cohort
Flagged from26% risk
“High” starts at59% risk
Times each score is re-checked30
In plain English
The score above which a student gets flagged for attention.
How it's worked out
Chosen on a separate group of students the model never trained on, tuned to favour catching people, and capped at 40% of the cohort.
What it tells you
Everyone above the line appears on the teacher's list.
Why it's here at all
0.5 is an arbitrary default that suits almost no real problem.
| STU_00466 |
95% |
| High |
| 95% |
| COURSE_01 |
| train |
| Open |
| STU_00103 | 94% | High | 95% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00492 | 94% | High | 94% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00390 | 94% | High | 93% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00227 | 93% | High | 94% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00224 | 93% | High | 94% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00039 | 93% | High | 96% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00355 | 93% | High | 94% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00356 | 93% | High | 96% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00347 | 93% | High | 94% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00305 | 93% | High | 95% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00073 | 93% | High | 94% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00348 | 93% | High | 93% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00132 | 92% | High | 94% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00428 | 92% | High | 95% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00300 | 92% | High | 94% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00368 | 92% | High | 93% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00323 | 92% | High | 94% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00118 | 91% | High | 94% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00388 | 91% | High | 93% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00058 | 90% | High | 93% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00442 | 90% | High | 92% | COURSE_04 | test | Open |
| STU_00095 | 90% | High | 91% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00421 | 90% | High | 92% | COURSE_02 | test | Open |
| STU_00168 | 90% | High | 93% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00412 | 90% | High | 92% | COURSE_01 | test | Open |
| STU_00142 | 89% | High | 93% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00476 | 89% | High | 91% | COURSE_01 | val | Open |
| STU_00012 | 89% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | val | Open |
| STU_00043 | 89% | High | 93% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00084 | 89% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | test | Open |
| STU_00382 | 89% | High | 92% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00405 | 89% | High | 92% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00242 | 89% | High | 92% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00488 | 88% | High | 93% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00500 | 88% | High | 90% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00161 | 88% | High | 92% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00383 | 88% | High | 93% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00018 | 88% | High | 90% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00027 | 88% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00269 | 88% | High | 93% | COURSE_02 | val | Open |
| STU_00221 | 88% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00373 | 87% | High | 91% | COURSE_04 | test | Open |
| STU_00085 | 87% | High | 91% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00240 | 87% | High | 93% | COURSE_01 | test | Open |
| STU_00485 | 87% | High | 90% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00393 | 87% | High | 92% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00211 | 87% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00253 | 86% | High | 92% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00403 | 86% | High | 93% | COURSE_02 | val | Open |
| STU_00050 | 86% | High | 92% | COURSE_03 | test | Open |
| STU_00376 | 86% | High | 91% | COURSE_01 | val | Open |
| STU_00386 | 85% | High | 92% | COURSE_04 | val | Open |
| STU_00105 | 85% | High | 92% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00157 | 85% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00063 | 85% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00216 | 85% | High | 91% | COURSE_02 | val | Open |
| STU_00320 | 85% | High | 92% | COURSE_01 | test | Open |
| STU_00363 | 85% | High | 91% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| student_high_risk_003 | 84% | High | 93% | COURSE_02 | test | Open |
| STU_00260 | 84% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00033 | 84% | High | 93% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| student_medium_risk_001 | 82% | High | 91% | COURSE_02 | test | Open |
| STU_00222 | 82% | High | 91% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00468 | 81% | High | 90% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00462 | 81% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | test | Open |
| STU_00401 | 81% | High | 92% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00096 | 81% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00036 | 80% | High | 88% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00296 | 80% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | test | Open |
| STU_00436 | 79% | High | 91% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00378 | 79% | High | 89% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00101 | 79% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00402 | 78% | High | 89% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00379 | 78% | High | 91% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00298 | 78% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00064 | 78% | High | 91% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00079 | 78% | High | 91% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00375 | 78% | High | 90% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00015 | 77% | High | 92% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00263 | 76% | High | 90% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00074 | 76% | High | 89% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00444 | 76% | High | 87% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00271 | 74% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00214 | 74% | High | 92% | COURSE_03 | val | Open |
| STU_00156 | 74% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00479 | 74% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | test | Open |
| STU_00104 | 73% | High | 90% | COURSE_02 | train | Open |
| STU_00056 | 73% | High | 91% | COURSE_01 | val | Open |
| STU_00135 | 73% | High | 85% | COURSE_01 | val | Open |
| STU_00251 | 73% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00072 | 72% | High | 88% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00223 | 72% | High | 90% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00477 | 71% | High | 88% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
| STU_00335 | 71% | High | 91% | COURSE_04 | train | Open |
| STU_00293 | 71% | High | 89% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00336 | 70% | High | 89% | COURSE_03 | train | Open |
| STU_00499 | 70% | High | 91% | COURSE_02 | val | Open |
| STU_00345 | 69% | High | 89% | COURSE_01 | train | Open |
Showing 100 of 500 matching students. split shows whether a student was seen during training — the demo students are all held out.